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	What You Hear? And What It Really Means? Patricia T. Kelly, PhD

What You Hear	And		What It Really Means
Hormone replacement therapy increases a woman's breast cancer 1.5 fold			Only .03 more breast cancers would be found per 100 women who took estrogen for 10 years
Estrogen and progestin use increase breast cancer risk 8% a year ...			If 3000 women took estrogen and progestin one year, only one additional breast cancer would be detected

1. In the US, the average woman has a 1 in 8 or 1 in 9 risk of breast cancer. Actually, the average woman's risk is 2% up to age 50 and 11% to age 80.
2. Hormone replacement therapy increases a woman's breast cancer risk 1.5-fold. Only 0.3 more breast cancers would be found per 100 women with ten years of use.
3. Estrogen and progestin use increase breast cancer risk 8% a year. If 3,000 took them for one year, only one additional breast cancer would be detected.
4. Women with atypia have a three to four times greater breast cancer risk than other women. Actually, this is a risk of 1% a year.
5. Tamoxifen reduces breast cancer risk by about 49%. If 100 women took tamoxifen for 5 years, 1.8 fewer breast cancers would be detected by the end of nearly 6 years.

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First appeared July 03, 2001; updated August 19, 2007